Fake Ballon d'Or leaks went viral. Yamal's odds doubled.
- On 26–27 Sep, two fake "leaks" claiming Lamine Yamal had won reached 13 million views.
- Both appeared before voting closed on 28 Sep, so no real result could have leaked.
- On Polymarket, Yamal rose from 21–22% to 43%. Harry Kane fell from 58% to 44%.
- The leaks were fake. The price move was real.
What happened
- 26 Sep: an account on X claimed it could "confirm" Yamal had won. It reached 4.3 million views.
- 27 Sep: a post claimed a hacker got into a voting journalist's phone and leaked the final ranking. It reached 8.8 million views.
- Videos and fan pages repeated both claims in several languages.
We don't link to the fake posts, so we don't help them spread.
What moved the market
We lined up each post's time, to the minute, against Polymarket's hourly prices.
- Before the leaks, Yamal sat at 21–22% for four days.
- Once the fake leaks started spreading, his price climbed steadily as views built up.
- On 26 Sep, England lost 2–3 to Spain. Yamal scored, Kane hit the bar with a penalty, and the price moved with the score.
- On deadline day, 28 Sep from 19:00 to midnight Bangkok time, Yamal gained 9.5 points and Kane lost 10.6. We found no single post behind it.
Timing isn't proof of cause. We can show what moved together, not prove what caused what.
How the Ballon d'Or is decided
- France Football, with UEFA, names 30 nominees.
- 100 journalists vote, one from each of the top 100 FIFA-ranked countries.
- Each ranks 10 players: 15, 12, 10, 8, 7, 5, 4, 3, 2 and 1 points. That's 67 points per ballot, and the most one player can get is 1,500.
- A tie goes to the player with more first-place votes.
- Only France Football's editor-in-chief knows the result before the ceremony.
What can affect the points
Official criteria: individual and decisive performances, trophies won, and fair play and conduct.
Human factors not written in the rules: extra weight on the World Cup in a World Cup year, the story around a player and his late form, big-league visibility, some voters favouring their own country's players, and attackers usually beating defenders and goalkeepers.
The candidates in numbers
| Player | Goals / assists | Big trophies | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lamine Yamal | 26 / 21 | World Cup, La Liga | 43% |
| Harry Kane | 73 / 8 | Bundesliga, DFB-Pokal | 44% |
| Kylian Mbappé | 58 / 14 | none major | 4% |
| Lionel Messi | 44 / 30 | MLS Cup, World Cup runner-up | 4.2% |
| Erling Haaland | 58 / 11 | FA Cup, League Cup | 0.15% |
Season stats: GOAL power rankings, 8 Jul 2026, all competitions for club and country. Market: Polymarket, 29 Sep 2026, about 17:30 Bangkok time.
Next: every voter's ballot from 2023–2025 is public. We'll use them to measure how much goals, trophies and nationality actually drove past votes, then compare the result with market prices.
Red flags that prove the leaks are fake
- Posted before voting closed on 28 Sep, when no final total existed.
- One phone, one ballot. A voter only sees their own 10 names, never the total from all 100 voters.
- No proof: no named voter, country or document.
- The leaks disagree. Others named Mbappé or Kane as the winner.
- Impossible numbers, such as a player above 1,500 points, or a winner's total far below what real winners get. Real winners scored 1,170 in 2024 and 1,380 in 2025.
Yellow flags: suspicious, but not proof alone
- "I can confirm" with no source, or a claimed perfect record you can't check
- "BREAKING 🚨" engagement accounts and single-club fan pages
- Screenshots only, with typos in player or club names
- AI-generated video
- Recycled formats: viral "leaked" point tables were wrong in 2024 and 2025 too
Timeline (Bangkok time, UTC+7)
- 2025–26 season: the performance period, including the 2026 World Cup
- Mon 8 Sep: 30 nominees revealed live on ballondor.com
- 8–28 Sep: journalists vote
- Mon 28 Sep: voting closes ("Monday midnight"; if that's Paris time, it's 05:00 on 29 Sep in Bangkok)
- Now: votes are counted in secret
- Mon 26 Oct: winner revealed in London, the first ceremony outside Paris. Reported start: 20:00 London time, which is 03:00 on Tue 27 Oct in Bangkok. Not yet officially confirmed.
Check the official sources
- ballondor.com: nominees and results
- uefa.com/ballondor: co-organizer, official announcements
- France Football / L'Équipe: the organizer
- @ballondor on X: the official account
Our view
Spreading fake leaks to push up odds you've bet on is market manipulation. It takes money from people who trusted the post, and it can be illegal in many places. At fors.gg, we track how prices move against what spreads online, so traders can tell information from noise.
Not financial advice. For education only.